Prediction error growth in a more realistic atmospheric toy model with three spatiotemporal scales
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract. This article studies the growth of prediction error over lead time in a schematic model atmospheric transport. Inspired by Lorenz (2005) system, we mimic an variable one dimension, which can be decomposed into three spatiotemporal scales. We identify parameter values that provide scaling and chaotic behavior. Instead exponential forecast time, observe more complex test power law quadratic hypothesis for scale-dependent growth. The is valid first days growth, with included saturation effect, extend its validity to entire period theory explaining parameters confirmed. Although cannot completely rejected could serve as guess, hypothesis's are not theoretically justifiable model. In addition, study initial ECMWF system (500 hPa geopotential height) 1986 2011 period. For these data, it impossible assess descriptions appropriate, but extended law, substantiated provides excellent fit average system. Fitting parameters, conclude there intrinsic limit predictability after 22 d.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geoscientific Model Development
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1991-9603', '1991-959X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4147-2022