Prediction error growth in a more realistic atmospheric toy model with three spatiotemporal scales

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract. This article studies the growth of prediction error over lead time in a schematic model atmospheric transport. Inspired by Lorenz (2005) system, we mimic an variable one dimension, which can be decomposed into three spatiotemporal scales. We identify parameter values that provide scaling and chaotic behavior. Instead exponential forecast time, observe more complex test power law quadratic hypothesis for scale-dependent growth. The is valid first days growth, with included saturation effect, extend its validity to entire period theory explaining parameters confirmed. Although cannot completely rejected could serve as guess, hypothesis's are not theoretically justifiable model. In addition, study initial ECMWF system (500 hPa geopotential height) 1986 2011 period. For these data, it impossible assess descriptions appropriate, but extended law, substantiated provides excellent fit average system. Fitting parameters, conclude there intrinsic limit predictability after 22 d.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Controlling Spatiotemporal Chaos in a Realistic El Niño Prediction Model

A method for controlling low-order chaotic behavior of continuous spatiotemporal systems is developed and demonstrated in a complex, realistic 3D partial differential equation model that is used successfully for predicting El Niño events in the equatorial Pacific. An unstable periodic orbit that involves a full-domain oscillation is stabilized using a feedback control applied to a single degree...

متن کامل

Error Threshold and Mutational Meltdown in a Toy Model

We introduce a toy model for interacting populations connected by mutations and limited by a shared resource. We study the presence of Eigen’s error threshold and mutational meltdown. The phase diagram of the system shows that the extinction of the whole population due to mutational meltdown can occur well before an eventual error threshold transition. Typeset using REVTEX 1 The evolutionary pr...

متن کامل

Toward a more realistic holographic QCD model

By matching the Dp − Dq system in type II superstring theory with the Regge trajectories of vector and axial-vector meson spectra, a possible 5-dimension metric of a Dp−Dq soft-wall model has been determined. The dependence of the metric parameters on Regge trajectory parameters has been demonstrated. It is shown that the models defined in Dp brane background for p = 3 or 4 can be consistent wi...

متن کامل

A More Realistic Random Direction Mobility Model

Mobility models are widely used in the simulation-based performance analysis of mobile networks. However, there is a trade-off between simple parametrization and realistic movement patterns. Synthetic models like the random waypoint and random direction model are simple to implement, but they only provide unrealistic simple user sojourn densities and traffic flows. In contrast, graphor trip-bas...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Geoscientific Model Development

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1991-9603', '1991-959X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4147-2022